The forecast that helps set the price of living in Florida just got smaller again. In its August 6 mid-season update NOAA cut the 2026 Atlantic outlook to 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major, down from the May call, and lifted the odds of a below-normal season from 55 percent to 75 percent, leaving a 5 percent chance of an above-normal year. Two named storms have formed and not one hurricane. The driver is a Pacific El Nino running 2.07 degrees hot, whose wind shear tears Atlantic storms apart before they organize. The September peak is still ahead, and a quiet sky is a season, not a repriced risk.