Marion listed 207 fewer houses in August than it did a year ago, a 20 percent drop, and I want to be careful how that gets read. Closed sales barely moved, down 2.3 percent. So the inventory decline did not come from a buying spree, it came from the listing side. In a metro the Census Bureau says added 14,600 people in a single year, the constraint showing up in this data is houses, not buyers.
That is why Wednesday matters more than a quarter point. The market puts 83 percent odds on the Fed raising rates on September 16, the first hike since 2023, and the 30-year is already at 6.76 percent. Every owner sitting on a three percent mortgage has one more reason to stay put. If that holds, the listing count keeps falling into a market that keeps adding people.
I am not calling this a hot market and I am not calling it a soft one. The median slipped 1.7 percent while the average rose 2.5, sellers are getting 95.8 percent of original list, and it still takes 108 days from listing to closing. Those are not boom numbers. They describe steady demand and a thinning shelf. If you want one number to watch this fall, watch new listings, because that is the one that actually moved.
For buyers
Buyer: there is less to choose from, not more competition at the table. Inventory is down 14.8 percent while closed sales barely moved. A hike Wednesday likely thins the listing count further.
For sellers
Seller: you have 207 fewer competitors than last August, and buyers are still closing. Marion sellers got a median 95.8 percent of original list, on 108 days from listing to closing.
For investors
Investor: 845 apartments land in southwest and south Ocala through 2027 and 2028, into a metro adding roughly 14,600 people a year. Mark the delivery dates before you price 2028 rents.