The Suwannee River Water Management District recorded 9.43 inches of rain in August, about 23 percent above normal. On August 31 the Ichetucknee River at U.S. 27 still set its lowest daily flow on record, and the Upper Floridan Aquifer, the source corridor wells and springs draw on, ended the month near the 24th percentile. The district’s 12-month rainfall deficit stands at 16.85 inches, and it remains under a Modified Phase II Water Shortage Order. WUFT, reporting with the Florida Springs Institute, counts nine North Central Florida springs that stopped flowing in 2026.
Agriculture accounts for 64 percent of groundwater use in the Suwannee River district. A 2024 district study tied the long-term decline in spring flow in part to groundwater pumping.
Florida Springs Institute scientist Bill Hawthorne puts Poe Spring’s flow near a third of its historical level. Its park near High Springs closed. White Springs first went dry in 1977.
H.R. 4656 would order a federal study of a 2,800 square mile park across the Ocala National Forest, Silver Springs and Paynes Prairie. Since July 23, 2025: two actions, introduction and referral.
| Figure | What it measures | The latest read | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.28% | 30-yr fixed | Up 25 basis points in a week. A year ago 6.34%. Highest since Nov 2023. | Freddie Mac · Oct 1 2026 |
| $415,000 | FL single-family median | Closed sales down 1.5%, inventory down 13% from a year earlier. | FL Realtors · Aug 2026 |
| $290,000 | Marion single-family median | 4.8 months of supply, 61 days to contract. | FL Realtors / OMCAR · Aug 2026 |
| $1,020 | Alachua Citizens premium | Marion $1,263, Levy $1,385, Sumter $1,728. Statewide average $1,843. | Citizens / FL OIR · Apr 2026 |
| 266,231 | Citizens policies in force | Down from a 2023 peak of 1.4 million. Four more OIR rate cuts in September. | Insurance Journal / OIR · Aug 2026 |
| $4.12 | FL average gas | Ocala $4.13, Gainesville $4.19 a gallon. | AAA · Sep 15 2026 |
Ocala’s Community Redevelopment Agency is weighing a Downtown Retail and Restaurant grant to replace a $50,000 commercial grant with awards up to $150,000 per project. It follows the closing of a 16-year boutique, an 18-year pantry and a 17-year restaurant. CRA grant applications have been frozen since July 31 while staff rewrite the program.
UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research puts Marion County at 447,170 residents on April 1, 2026, up 19,197 in a year, a 4.49 percent gain and the largest on record. The prior year added about 14,000. Unincorporated Marion took 16,941 of the new residents, rising 4.86 percent to 365,261.
AirDNA counts 1,401 active Gainesville short-term rentals, down 23.9 percent year over year, at 51 percent occupancy and a $162 average nightly rate. Occupancy rose 4.5 percent from August 2025 to August 2026. In Ocala, covered in Issue 09, AirROI counted supply up 35.9 percent and revenue per listing down 13.5 percent.
Forecasters on Florida Public Radio’s emergency network expect the subtropical jet to shift across the peninsula after New Year’s. Central and South Florida average about twice the normal tornado count in an El Nino winter. The 1998 Central Florida outbreak, in a strong El Nino, killed 42 people, a state record.
Three projects along Interstate 75 moved between August and October: a mixed-use district across from the planned Buc-ee’s, a subdivision near the US 27 interchange, and an FDOT study for a new Sumter County exit.
Marion’s Planning and Zoning Board approved a land-use change on October 2 for 105 acres at NW 49th Street and NW 44th Avenue, across Interstate 75 from the planned Buc-ee’s. An equine-themed facility is under consideration, and the change allows uses from a truck stop to an amusement park. The County Commission votes October 20.
Golden Lake Development of Tampa filed the Stancils Pineywoods PUD near where US 27 meets Interstate 75. It needs a rezoning from agricultural, a public sewer extension and a traffic study. County staff marked it Requires Re-submit in August.
FDOT is running a Project Development and Environment study for a new interchange at the County Road 514, Warm Springs Avenue, overpass in Coleman. FDOT cites rising transportation demand and development tied to recent industrial activity.
The number I keep coming back to is 16.85 inches. That is how far behind on rain the Suwannee River district sits over twelve months, and one wet August did not close it. The Ichetucknee hit its lowest flow ever recorded on August 31. Nine springs in our region stopped flowing this year. We sell this corridor on springs, and right now some of them are not running.
Put that next to Marion’s count. The county added 19,197 people in a year, a record, and 16,941 of them landed in unincorporated county, which mostly means a private well and a septic tank on the same aquifer. I am not saying growth caused the drought. The district’s own study points at pumping, mostly agricultural. I am saying the buyer moving onto five acres should know what is under it.
Then the rate. Freddie Mac put the 30-year at 7.28 percent on October 1, the highest since November 2023. Money got more expensive while the water got scarcer and the interstate kept pulling projects to its exits. None of that makes the corridor a bad bet. It makes due diligence the whole game this fall.
Buyer: on any well-and-septic property, put a well yield and water quality test in the inspection contingency. The aquifer closed August near the 24th percentile, and the 30-year is at 7.28 percent, so lock early.
Seller: if your listing sells a spring, look at it before the photos. Nine regional springs stopped flowing in 2026. Lead with what is true now: the land, the well report, the insurance quote.
Investor: springs-tourism rentals around High Springs carry a water risk the pro forma does not show. Poe Spring’s park closed. Underwrite on a 16.85-inch rain deficit, not a brochure.